Published on 2 March 2026

National risk analysis: Disasters and Emergencies in Switzerland (DES)

The main objective of the national risk analysis, Disasters and Emergencies in Switzerland (DES), is to provide organisations that are strategically or operationally responsible for managing disasters and emergencies with risk-based priorities in planning.

Objectives, benefits and approach

Organisations involved in disaster and emergency management must be prepared for a wide range of hazards. Managing such events requires organisation and planning.

DES provides a systematic overview of potential hazards in the areas of nature, technology and society. Its main objective is to provide organisations that are strategically or operationally responsible for managing disasters and emergencies with risk-based priorities in planning, with a focus on a transparent, comparative overview of risks.

This overview forms an important basis for dialogue on all relevant risks and for a comprehensive risk assessment, enabling decisions to be made on possible risk-reduction measures and their prioritisation. This means that disaster management measures in Switzerland can be better coordinated in the interests of integrated civil protection.

DES is therefore the foundation for disaster planning and preparedness at all levels of government.

It employs a three-step methodology: i) Risk identification and hazard selection, ii) Risk analysis and scenario development, iii) Risk evaluation and risk presentation. The Delphi method, or expert survey, was used in the risk evaluation to estimate the likelihood or plausibility and extent of damage of the ‘major-intensity’ scenarios. Around 270 experts were involved in DES 2025 throughout the entire process.

Related publications

Main findings of the national risk analysis

The DES 2025 national risk analysis has produced a wealth of relevant findings, which are presented in detail in the national risk analysis report. Here is a selection of the key findings:

• Pandemics and electric power supply shortages pose the greatest risks to Switzerland. Both can have a significant impact and both have a high likelihood of occurring. Switzerland's ‘Top 5’ risks also include a mass influx of people seeking protection, electric power supply outages and drought.
• The risks posed by armed conflicts, pandemics and earthquakes have the potential to cause the most damage.
• Windstorms and drought pose the greatest environmental risk, as these cause long-term damage to ecosystems, destroy forests, and significantly disrupt the resilience of vegetation.
• Armed conflict, earthquakes and electric power supply shortages pose the greatest economic risk.
• Most hazards are likely to cause bottlenecks and disruptions to road traffic and rail transport and push emergency services to their limit, particularly in the event of a mass casualty incident (MCI).
• Malicious hazards, typically attacks, mainly impact public order and internal security.
• Of the 44 hazards assessed, 29 result in damage to or a loss of cultural assets.

See all 44 hazards on the interactive risk matrix.

FAQs

DES 2025 provides a comprehensive overview of potential hazards in Switzerland. It identifies the risks associated with natural occurrences, technical disruptions and social developments, and estimates the potential impact of such events. This section deals with frequently asked questions about DES 2025, its methodology, the various scenarios and the implications of the results for civil protection in Switzerland.

• Why does Switzerland need a national risk analysis?

  Switzerland is periodically affected by events that threaten people and their livelihoods or impose significant constraints on everyday life. From the present point of view, coping with disasters and emergencies poses the greatest challenge to civil protection. This is due in particular to the increasing interconnectedness of modern society, the growing vulnerability of infrastructures and the high value of assets, which means that disasters and emergencies are causing ever greater damage. To respond to hazards effectively, it is essential to understand them and the risks they pose.

  In accordance with Article 13 of the Federal Act on Civil Protection and Civil Defence, the FOCP is responsible for hazard and risk analysis in cooperation with the cantons and other agencies. The national risk analysis on disasters and emergencies in Switzerland (DES 2025) provides comprehensive insights into the hazards facing the Swiss population and their livelihoods and is thus central to emergency and disaster management and civil protection at all levels of government. It is therefore the basis for political decisions on incident response in line with integrated risk management.

• What are events, disasters and emergencies?

  An event is something that has an impact on the population. Events can occur suddenly or develop over time.

  A disaster is an event that causes such significant damage to people, the environment, the economy or society that the affected community's human and material resources are overwhelmed and outside assistance is required.

  An emergency is a situation arising from a development or an event that cannot be dealt with using normal procedures because it overwhelms the human and material resources of the community that is affected.

• What are risks and how are they evaluated?

  Risk = Likelihood x Impact

  Risk is a measure of the magnitude of a hazard. It includes the likelihood of the hazard occurring or the frequency of its occurrence and the extent of the damage caused. Risk assessment is used to evaluate and compare hazards.

  Likelihood indicates how likely it is for a particular event to occur. This can also be expressed as the frequency of occurrence (return period). For example, a return period of 50 years means that a particular event (e.g. a natural hazard) occurs on average once every 50 years.

  Impact refers to the amount of damage that an event is expected to cause. Damage can be caused directly by the event itself, such as loss of life, or indirectly, for example in the form of production losses that occur in a different region at a different time. To obtain a comprehensive picture of impact, DES defines 12 damage indicators in four areas of damage: individuals, the environment, the economy and society.

• What is a risk analysis and how was the DES national risk analysis carried out?

  A risk analysis systematically records and describes the risks in a given system (e.g. Switzerland, canton, commune, critical infrastructure). This includes assessing the level of risk, which is often presented as a classification of scenarios in terms of frequency and extent of damage.

  The national risk analysis applies to potential disasters and emergencies in Switzerland and employs a systematic methodology consisting of the following three steps:

  • Step 1: Risk identification and hazard selection
    The hazard catalogue encompasses hazards in three areas – nature, technology and society – that could realistically occur in Switzerland and are therefore analysed in detail.
  • Step 2: Risk analysis and scenario development
    In cooperation with specialists from federal and cantonal agencies, hazard files are compiled on the selected hazards. These hazard files serve as a basis for risk evaluation. Each file contains a detailed description of a major-intensity scenario, describing how the event might unfold.
  • Step 3: Risk evaluation and risk presentation
    Risk is evaluated in expert workshops. Each scenario is evaluated according to the likelihood or plausibility of its occurrence and its impact. The results of the evaluation are presented in a risk matrix and documented in detail in the risk report and risk brochure.

  Further information on the procedure can be found in the methodology report.

  • National Risk Analysis Methodology – Disasters and Emergencies in Switzerland 2025

    The methodology report describes the national risk analysis process and risk evaluation methodology. It ensures a systematic and comparable analysis of hazards with transparent results.

    PDF685.17 kB2 March 2026

• What hazards are included in the DES national risk analysis?

  The hazard catalogue contains more than 100 hazards, including examples of specific events. It forms the basis for 44 hazard files with individual scenarios in the areas of nature (16 scenarios), technology (14 scenarios) and society (14 scenarios). These are listed below in the order in which they appear in the catalogue.

  Nature: Hailstorm, heavy rain with surface runoff, heavy snowfall, windstorm, cold wave, heat wave, drought, forest fire, inland flooding, avalanche winter, rockfall, earthquake, volcanic eruption abroad, propagation of invasive species, meteor strike, solar storm

  Technology: Plane crash, rail accident involving hazardous material, road accident involving hazardous material, incident in a biological facility, incident in a chemical facility, NPP incident, dam accident, gas supply disruption, gas supply shortage, petroleum supply shortage, electric power supply outage, electric power supply shortage, mobile network outage, restriction of shipping traffic

  Society: Pandemic, animal disease outbreak, attack using conventional means, dirty bomb attack, biological attack with viruses, biological attack with bacteria, biological attack with toxins, chemical weapons attack, attack with toxic industry chemicals, attack on nuclear material in transport, cyberattack, armed conflict, mass influx of people seeking protection, unrest.

• What criteria determine the selection of a hazard for deeper analysis (hazard file)?

  Die Auswahl der Gefährdungen für die Entwicklung detaillierter Gefährdungsdossiers erfolgt nach folgenden Kriterien:

  They include events that:

  • have already caused disasters or emergencies in Switzerland (e.g. earthquake, inland flooding)
  • have caused major damage abroad and could plausibly occur in Switzerland (e.g. major electric power supply outage)
  • have the potential to trigger a disaster or emergency (e.g. attack with a radiological bomb).

• What is a hazard file or hazard scenario?

  As part of DES 2025, a total of 44 hazards were analysed in detail and assessed for risk. For each hazard a hazard file was created containing background information, such as definitions, influencing factors and examples of events, as well as a detailed major-intensity scenario. The systematically structured files provide a quick introduction to the topic and make it possible to compare hazards.

  The scenarios are general descriptions of possible events or developments and their impact. The number of possible scenarios is theoretically infinite. For this reason, we often refer to a ‘representative’ scenario, which covers the full extent of a hazard's impact.

• What is a major-intensity scenario?

  A major-intensity scenario describes an event of national significance to civil protection. For a scenario to be of major intensity, it must:

  • affect a large geographical area covering several regions or many people (e.g. electric power supply shortage or pandemic);
  • require intercantonal, national or even international cooperation, coordination and/or support as it cannot be handled by individual communes or cantons (e.g. the distribution of casualties in the event of a mass casualty incident (MCI) or with severe burn injuries);
  • affect a critical sub-sector with national implications (e.g. navigation restrictions on the Rhine);
  • involve a local event with national implications due to potential impacts on transport or energy infrastructure (e.g. dam accident);
  • involve a local event with a nationwide impact (e.g. terror attack using chemical weapons);
  • involve an event with serious consequences for domestic confidence in the state or with far-reaching diplomatic consequences.

• For which scenarios is the likelihood of occurrence assessed and for which is plausibility assessed?

  For non-malicious hazards – events that occur randomly or unintentionally (e.g. natural disasters) – the likelihood of occurrence is assessed. This indicates how likely it is that a particular event will occur within a given period of time. In Switzerland, it is common practice in civil protection to specify the return period (frequency of occurrence), i.e. the time span in which a specific event occurs once on average (once in x years).

  In the case of scenarios involving malicious hazards – events caused intentionally by people (perpetrators) – plausibility is assessed, as experience is limited and the threat situation can change rapidly or continuously. The plausibility assessment is based on the perpetrator's intent and ability, and how easy a scenario is to implement from a technical and organisational perspective. Plausibility cannot be compared directly with the likelihood of occurrence, as no numerical risk value is calculated for malicious hazards. However, the risks are presented in the risk matrices.

  More information on likelihood of occurrence and plausibility is available in the methodology report.

  • National Risk Analysis Methodology – Disasters and Emergencies in Switzerland 2025

    The methodology report describes the national risk analysis process and risk evaluation methodology. It ensures a systematic and comparable analysis of hazards with transparent results.

    PDF685.17 kB2 March 2026

• Who was involved in compiling the DES 2025 national risk analysis?

  In total, 265 experts from the Federal Administration, cantons, academia and business contributed to updating and revising the hazard files. Sixty-eight per cent of the experts were from the public sector, 26 per cent from the private sector (in particular operators of critical infrastructure), and 6 per cent from academia.

  Detailed information is available in the DES National Risk Analysis Report.

Earlier work on the national risk analysis

• Katarisk: Eine Risikobeurteilung aus Sicht des Bevölkerungsschutzes

  Das Verbundsystem Bevölkerungsschutz ist eine der Antworten auf den grundlegenden Wandel des sicherheitspolitischen Umfeldes. Die politisch-militärische Bedrohung der Schweiz ist in den Hintergrund getreten, während Gefährdungen im Bereich der natur- und zivilisationsbedingten Katastrophen und Notlagen an Bedeutung gewonnen haben.

  In „Katarisk“ wurden diese verschiedenen Gefährdungen nach einer einheitlichen Methode analysiert, bewertet und einander gegenübergestellt. Das untersuchte Gefahrenspektrum umfasst Naturgefahren, technische Gefahren und gesellschaftliche Entwicklungen, die das Potential für Katastrophen und Notlagen aufweisen. Nicht betrachtet wurden machtpolitische (Terrorismus, Krieg), wirtschaftliche und ökologische Gefahren.

  Der Studie Katarisk ging 1995 die Studie Katanos „Katastrophen und Notlagen in der Schweiz“ voraus, in der erstmals eine vergleichende Übersicht über bevölkerungsschutzrelevante Risiken in der Schweiz dokumentiert wurde.

  Katarisk als E-Learning-Modul

  Die Methode von Katarisk wurde als E-Learning-Modul im Swiss Virtual Campus SVC umgesetzt. Interessierte können sich dort registrieren (siehe weiterführende Links).

  • KATARISK – Katastrophen und Notlagen in der Schweiz, eine Risikobeurteilung aus der Sicht des Bevölkerungsschutzes / Zusammenfassung

    PDF422.95 kB24 February 2026

  Methode

  Zielsetzung, Vorgehen (Risikoanalyse und Risikobewertung), Illustration des Vorgehens am Beispiel Hochwasser, Festlegung der Bewertungsgrössen (Grenzkosten, Risikoaversion), Glossar, eingezogene Fachstellen, Literaturhinweise.

  • Monitorversion

    PDF572.48 kB27 February 2024

  • Printversion

    PDF2.54 MB27 February 2024

   

  Risikoanalyse: Ergebnisse

   

  Jährlich zu erwartende statistische Schadenerwartungswerte Infolge aller denkbaren Schadenereignisse der betrachteten Gefahrenarten in der Schweiz

  • Monitorversion

    PDF579.88 kB27 February 2024

  • Printversion

    PDF4.41 MB27 February 2024

  Risikoanalyse: Grundlagen und Informationen

  Grundlagen und Informationen zur Risikoanalyse der einzelnen betrachteten Gefahrenarten mit typischen Ereignissen.

  • Monitorversion

    PDF713.10 kB27 February 2024

  • Printversion

    PDF2.48 MB27 February 2024

  Risikobewertung: Ergebnisse

  Tabellarische und graphische Darstellung der Ergebnisse der Risikobewertung über alle betrachteten Gefahrenarten. Darstellung des Einflusses der Aversion auf die monetarisierten Risiken pro Gefahrenart.

  • Monitorversion

    PDF579.88 kB27 February 2024

  • Printversion

    PDF4.41 MB27 February 2024

  Risikobewertung: Grundlagen und Informationen

  Tabelle pro Gefahrenart mit allen Risikoangaben (statistische Schadenerwartungswerte, monetarisierte Risiken ohne und mit Aversion).

  • Links

    PDF92.52 kB27 February 2024

  • Monitorversion

    PDF425.75 kB27 February 2024

  • Printversion

    PDF525.09 kB27 February 2024

• Risikoaversion: Einfluss auf die Beurteilung von Risiken

  Einschätzen von Risiken, Reagieren auf Risiken

  Ereignisse mit grossem Schadenausmass werden allgemein stärker gewichtet, als es aufgrund des tatsächlichen Schadenerwartungswerts angezeigt wäre. 1 Ereignis, das 100 Opfer verursacht, wird meist als schlimmer empfunden als 100 Ereignisse mit je 1 Opfer. Grossereignisse – wie auch die Aussicht auf Grossereignisse – führen deshalb zu stärkeren oder rascheren Reaktionen (z. B. Anpassungen von Gesetzen und Vorschriften). „Risikoaversion gegenüber Grossereignissen“ meint, dass die Bedeutung von Risiken mit dem Ausmass möglicher Ereignisse überproportional zunimmt. Dies wird in Sicherheitsplanungen immer häufiger berücksichtigt, indem das Schadenausmass mit einer Aversionsfunktion gewichtet wird.

  Projekt von BABS und PLANAT

  Das Thema „Risikoaversion gegenüber Grossereignissen“ wird seit Jahren kontrovers diskutiert. Das Bundesamt für Bevölkerungsschutz BABS und die Nationale Plattform Naturgefahren PLANAT haben 2005 ein Projekt eingeleitet, das dem Thema „Risikoaversion – Entwicklung systematischer Instrumente zur Risiko- und Sicherheitsbeurteilung bei naturbedingten und technischen Risiken“ gewidmet ist. Es soll ein solides Fundament für die weitere Diskussion schaffen und die Sicherheitsplanung mit systematischen Instrumenten unterstützen.

  Auslegeordnung, Analyse und Vorschläge für die Anwendung

  In einer Auslegeordnung zeigt das Projekt, was unter der Risikoaversion bisher verstanden wird und wie bei technischen Risiken und Naturgefahren damit umgegangen wird. Darauf aufbauend wird eine Unterteilung in drei Aspekte vorgeschlagen, die mit zunehmendem Ausmass und Seltenheit an Bedeutung gewinnen: die Ausweitung und überproportionale Zunahme des Gesamtschadens, die zunehmende Unsicherheit über Eintretenswahrscheinlichkeit und Ausmass sowie die besondere Verantwortung bei Grossereignissen. So wird transparenter, welche Überlegungen in die Risikobewertung einfliessen. Damit wird auch eine Grundlage für ein einheitlicheres Verständnis dieses Bewertungsaspektes bereitgestellt. Ausserdem wird ein Vorschlag für die Quantifizierung der einzelnen Teile und ihre Anwendung in der Praxis der Risikobeurteilung unterbreitet.

  Primär für Fachleute

  Der Bericht richtet sich primär an die Fachleute auf dem Gebiet der naturbedingten und technischen Sicherheit und setzt zum Verständnis der Inhalte ein Grundwissen im Bereich Risiko und Sicherheit voraus. Die Zusammenfassung steht in deutscher, französischer und englischer Sprache zum Download bereit. Der vollständige Bericht kann – ebenfalls deutsch, französisch und englisch – bei nebenstehender Adresse bestellt werden.